Narrative Fallacy and Confirmation Bias

In this article, we will explore narrative fallacy and confirmation bias. First, let us check the narrative fallacy.

Stories fascinate us as humans. Success stories tell us how others have made it, and we feel we have abstracted their growth formula. The dots line up correctly, and we think we have the answer. This bias is known as the Narrative fallacy.

It is easier to visualise a complex phenomenon as a simple story. When we make the key ideas simple and connect them, it is cognitively easier to absorb.

Our brains are continuously overloaded with sensory data, and our brain simplifies things and provides an abstract understanding. Our curiosity pushes us to understand how things around us work.

When we hear a story, our biases and prior beliefs make us pick the narrative that suits us. When we listen to founders’ stories of troubled upbringings making it big, we falsely think that their troubled upbringing led to success. We fail to see that success is much more nuanced, with luck and opportunity playing a slightly larger role.

Our mind seeks simple messages of success and derives them from stories we hear. The illusion of understanding the secret to success and unravelling the mystery of the process comforts us.

Here are a few ways to overcome the narrative fallacy:

• Question the narrative. Once we consume a story, pause and ask if the conclusion is valid. Are we sure that all founders with troubled childhoods become great successes?

• Shut the narrative source. Another way is to shut down the feed that provides the narrative. Shut the news and unfollow Twitter accounts. Let's frame our story from good sources.

Next, we will look at confirmation bias. When provided with evidence, we tend to pick information that confirms our beliefs or ideas selectively - This is confirmation bias. Two people with opposing views can look at the same evidence and interpret it in favour of their current beliefs.

Biased interpretation of information can have catastrophic consequences. Identifying this bias is the first step to tackling it. It is tough to change our past beliefs. Due to the information overload, our minds must find ways to compress it. Compression happens through mental models and shortcuts.

Looking at our decisions from varied perspectives can be helpful. We can avoid confirmation bias with these few steps.

• Make decisions deliberately. When we refrain from making decisions in haste, we reduce the chances of confirmation bias influencing us. Ponder over the decision and evaluate all angles.

• Look for opposites. Take an opposing point of view for our belief and look for evidence. The more evidence we find, our original ideas will be untrue.

• Seek views from diverse people. We can bounce our ideas and ask their thoughts on the subject (without sharing our views and subjecting them to bias). If we can get feedback from mentors, we will avoid confirmation bias.

Reference:

Confirmation Bias, Farnam Street Blog, May 2017

Avoid Falling victim to the Narrative Fallacy, Farnam Street Blog, Apr 2016