Lessons in History

History repeats and teaches the same lessons over and over again. Yet we don’t pay attention. Here are a few lessons from history (ideas from Will Durant, Morgan Housel, and Julian):

• A period of calm sets the stage for irrational behaviour. In times of peace, people are confident and tend to take more risks, sometimes even irrational. Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems. And nothing stays the same forever.

• Optimism and pessimism need to coexist for progress. For short-term decisions, we need to be more pessimistic, and for the long-term, we need to be more optimistic. The right balance between the both is key to success (but quite difficult to achieve).

• Great events rarely have a singular cause. We crave simplicity, but things aren’t that simple. Either several things happen at the same or little events keep happening, leading to a domino effect.

• Risk is what you don’t see. The biggest risk is what no one sees coming. When caught off-guard, we are vulnerable, and the surprise makes us paranoid. Paranoia doesn’t enable us to think straight.

• Humans are unequal by nature; fighting that would mean giving up freedom. Competition is something that’s hardwired into our genes. Humans tend only to cooperate because it gives them a competitive edge, whether in units of families, communities, companies or nations. Based on genetics alone, we are all fundamentally different from the moment we’re born.

• The evolution of humans was a social one, not a biological one. If you took someone out of Ancient Greece and placed them in 2016, they could survive just fine. The huge difference in their behaviour would only be a cultural one. The basic desires won't change.

• War is a more natural state than peace. This is not obvious, and you might not want to hear it, but it’s true. Throughout history, the earth has been free of war of any kind less than 10% of the time.

• Most friends aren't friends. They're acquaintances. Friends phone you out of the blue because they want to hear your voice. Friends would drive you to the emergency room at 3 AM. Friends are the family you choose, and they're key to happiness in old age. Invest in good people.