Commitment and Hindsight Bias

We will explore other biases and fallacies in the next set of articles. In this article, we address commitment & hindsight bias.

What is commitment bias? We try to be committed to our past behaviours even if they are not favourable to us. The tendency to be consistent aligns with our desire to be correct and show our conviction to the world. Psychologically, society honours consistency and gets society's approval; we try not to deviate from set patterns.

Commitment is always considered with positive values like honesty, grit, and stability, while anyone who is inconsistent is deemed confused. We tend to give more opportunities when we identify or perceive a smart person to work with. More opportunities offer better learning experiences, which make them even smarter. Commitment bias is harmful since one mistake can cause a lot of trouble.

First, we are given small requests, which lead to a larger commitment. Because we have complied with the smaller requests, we are more likely to comply with larger asks even if we know that might not be the right call.

A way to avoid commitment bias: Follow the gut. When we have a gut feeling about something not being right, abort. Ask ourselves if we would make the same decision a few days back.

In hindsight bias, we look back at past events and think we could predict them easily. We tend to be overconfident about our decision-making ability and feel we know the right outcome all day.

When we feel we are always correct, we overestimate our foresight ability and tend to make incredibly wrong decisions. An example of hindsight bias is looking at failed relationships and feeling that we knew they wouldn't work. In reality, we had no idea. Moreover, we participate in criticism of others' actions. (Especially regarding government policies, we always have a hindsight bias.)

It is effortless to find plausible explanations once we know the outcome. Asking for a second opinion of another physician, showing the first physician's reports, will always be somewhat biased.

Hindsight bias protects us from guilt by giving us false solace for being right. We respect ourselves more and feel less critical.

The best way to protect ourselves from this bias is to record our predictions in some journal. When we note the context around which we decided, we are sure what we know and don't. This would be proof to others (and ourselves, too) who would try to sound wise and say they knew it all along.

Reference:

Commitment and Consistency Bias, Farnam Street Blog, Aug 2016

Hindsight Bias - An introduction, Farnam Street Blog, Aug 2009