2025 - what's the plan?

In a world of constant flux, long-term, rigidly defined plans often crumble in the face of reality. Does that mean planning is futile? Not really. While detailed roadmaps might quickly become obsolete, setting directional goals and embracing the process of planning itself remains invaluable.

The Psychology of Planning: Understanding the Planning Fallacy

We're naturally prone to a cognitive bias known as the planning fallacy, which leads us to underestimate the time, resources, and effort required to complete tasks. We tend to focus on the best-case scenario, overlooking potential obstacles and setbacks.

Traditional to-do lists often exacerbate this problem. We cram them with tasks, fueled by an optimistic (and often unrealistic) belief in our productivity. The result? We end the day feeling overwhelmed and discouraged, having accomplished far less than we intended. This leads us to seek quick dopamine hits through distractions.

The Dopamine Trap and the Cycle of Self-Loathing 

1. You have a bit of self-loathing keeping you down, making you feel worthless.

2. With low self-worth, you easily convince yourself that you CAN’T fix this.

3. When you feel hopeless, the overwhelming things become more overwhelming.

4. When you get overwhelmed, you seek things that produce dopamine to make you feel good.

5. You get locked in dopamine chasing mode for longer than expected or desired.

6. After lengthy dopamine binging, you feel guilty and kind of hate yourself more.

7. Repeat all of the above.

We are trapped in the cycle of self-loathing and productivity loss.

A New Approach: Underpromise and Overdeliver (to Yourself)

The solution? Radical simplicity. Instead of overloading your daily list, prioritize one single task that, if completed, would represent a clear step in the right direction. You can have a few "bonus" tasks, but the primary focus remains on that one crucial item.

The Power of Less:

This approach has several benefits:

• Reduces Overwhelm: By focusing on a single priority, you minimize the sense of being overwhelmed by a mountain of tasks.

• Increases Focus: A shorter list allows for deeper concentration and higher-quality work.

• Builds Momentum: Completing that one key task generates a sense of accomplishment and motivates you to tackle more.

• Promotes Self-Compassion: Underpromising to yourself and then overdelivering creates a positive feedback loop, boosting your self-esteem and confidence.

How to Think About Planning

Here's a shift in perspective on planning:

1. Plans as Permission Slips: The primary function of a plan is not to predict the future with perfect accuracy, but to give yourself permission to move beyond your comfort zone. It provides the psychological scaffolding needed to take action.

2. Movement Creates Clarity: Clarity often emerges through action, not before it. Don't get stuck in "analysis paralysis." The perfect plan doesn't exist; it's created through iterative action and adjustment.

3. Delusion as Productive: Sometimes, acting on an imperfect plan is more valuable than having a perfectly accurate one. Accuracy can be paralyzing. This isn't about self-deception; it's about using simplified models to enable action.

4. Confidence, Not Certainty: Certainty is brittle. Confidence thrives in ambiguity. It's the belief that you'll figure things out, even if your initial plan is flawed.

5. The Trap of Accurate Maps: The desire for a perfect plan can be a way to avoid responsibility. Embrace the inherent imperfections of planning and accept that mistakes are inevitable.

6. Flaws as Intelligent Feedback: A flawed plan is not a failure; it's a learning opportunity. Each deviation from the plan reveals something about the terrain and helps you refine your approach. View your plans as hypotheses to be tested, not prophecies to be fulfilled.

7. Choice in Map-Making: While borrowing others' plans can be tempting, there's value in creating your own, even if it's imperfect. The process of "map-making" forces you to clarify your priorities and strengthens your sense of agency. Even when following others' paths, doing so consciously empowers you.

Putting it into Practice:

• The plan doesn't need to be right; it just needs to be useful enough to get you moving.

• The best time to make a new plan is while you're exploring, not before.

• When reality deviates from your plan, it's not failure; it's intelligent feedback.

• The most dangerous plan is the one that keeps you grounded, waiting for a certainty that never arrives.

How to Achieve Your Goals

Here's a practical framework for setting and achieving your goals:

Step 1: Imagine the Ideal Result:

• Visualize your desired outcome in detail. What would it look, feel, and sound like if everything went perfectly?

• Focus on the positive emotions associated with achieving this outcome.

• Don't let doubts or obstacles cloud your vision at this stage.

Step 2: Rate Yourself on a Scale of 1 to 10:

• Assess your current standing relative to your ideal outcome. 10 represents having fully achieved your goal and consistently maintaining it.

• Don't overthink the rating; go with your gut feeling.

Step 3: Justify Your Rating:

• Explain why you chose your current rating instead of a lower one.

• This step helps you recognize your existing strengths and resources.

• Acknowledge the progress you've already made, even if it's small.

Step 4: Identify the Next Step:

• Describe what you would be doing differently if you were one point higher on the scale.

• Focus on small, achievable changes.

• Remember that progress is incremental.

Step 5: Repeat Step 4:

• Continue this process, imagining yourself at each successive level before visualizing the next.

Step 6: List Actionable Steps:

• Outline three specific actions you can take to move to the next level.

• Having multiple options provides flexibility and reduces the pressure to choose the "perfect" action.

• Choose actions that you feel at least somewhat confident about taking.

Sustain and Keep it Relevant:

• Reaching your ultimate goal will take time.

• Celebrate your progress as you achieve each milestone.

• Continuously reassess and adjust your plan as needed.

Directional Goals for 2025

With these principles in mind, here are a few of my personal directional goals for 2025:

Overall Theme: Completion & Closing the Loops. I want to bring closure to projects and ideas I've been exploring over the past two years.

1. Health:

   • Goal: Be healthier in 2025 than in 2024.

   • Specifics: Lose weight, improve stamina (be able to walk 10km comfortably).

2. AI Builder:

   • Goal: Become a proficient AI builder and help others build with AI.

   • Specifics: Master AI agents, build 2-3 AI agents for specific use cases, develop and deploy 2 AI-powered applications.

3. Level Up (Leadership & Coaching):

   • Goal: Enhance my leadership capabilities by improving my coaching skills.

   • Specifics: Coach others to help them achieve their goals, thereby improving my own leadership abilities.

4. Completion (Courses):

   • Goal: Finish at least 30-40% of the online courses I've enrolled in.

   • Specifics: This is a sub-goal of "Level Up," as completing these courses will contribute to my overall skill development.

I plan to review these goals quarterly and make adjustments as needed.

In a rapidly changing world, embracing imperfect planning is not about abandoning goals; it's about adopting a more flexible, adaptive, and ultimately, more effective approach to achieving them. By setting directional goals, focusing on the process of planning, and viewing our plans as hypotheses to be tested, we can navigate uncertainty with greater confidence and achieve meaningful progress in our personal and professional lives. The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single, imperfect step. Step 1 is now…

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